Mudfoot posted this in the "Should I fire? If so, what?" thread. I think this would make a great starting point for a topic concerning tournament civil wars.
"Fed vs Fed *is* different
Quote: ...I do reject your premise that this ["let the dice decide the game"] was magnified in any way by being in a Fed v. Fed game...
Clearly, when anything involves DF or the DAC, dice will decide it. It's simply that in a Fed, the variance in damage dealt is greater than in any other ship. Compare a Lyran vs Lyran exchange: the phasers are the same as the Fed; ESGs probably cancel out, so the rest is in 3 or 4 UIM disruptors, which are a) more reliable and b) less damaging. Not only that, but the positions at the start of the next turn (and the tactics used to get there) have more impact.
Likewise in a Fed vs Fed, there's probably only one viable tactic, whereas most other civil wars give you options. You could fire at 8 in a Fed - that would certainly leave it in the hands of the dice goddess - and 3 hits might well be a win. But I suspect that 2 hits is a very likely loss, so it doesn't look a good idea. Any other choices?"
While the Fed vs Fed is arguably the most myopic of the civil wars, there are a couple of things you can do other than run right up to each other and see who rolls better. Here's a couple ideas for Fed vs Fed:
- Be a pest. Launch lots of shuttles and noodle around on your side of the map enough to make it possible that your opponent has to deal with them to get to you. He may be short a couple phasers when he reaches you if he chooses to kill the pests. If he doesn't, you may be able to do some minor shield damage. It's only a slight edge, but it's something. The downside is that your opponent may choose to engage elsewhere and you've now revealed that you don't have any special shuttles armed.
- Be a weenie. Arm 4 weasels and go for a range 8 sucker punch at the end of a turn. Average dice will get you ~45 damage and most other Fed captains are leary of firing at this range on a front shield. Results will obviously vary widely. Then sit, spin, recharge and weasel. 4 Weasels should get you through your reload turn without getting clobbered. You can easily recharge everything since you won't have much power in movement. If he has none of it and moves off, you can use batts to bump up your speed and trundle after him. He'll have the maneuver advantage next turn, but he'll have a hurt shield and probably some internals while you are clean. The downside is that raising your FC if he has not destroyed an active weasel can be tricky. Also, you just wasted a bunch of power in weasels if your opponent fired when you did. And your opponent will call you a pussy.
- Be a man. Only hold the 4th photon as a standard and use the extra power for reinforcement. Make sure your turn mode is satisfied when you reach engagement range. Wait for your opponent to shoot and then turn a fresh shield to chase and try to get a closer shot on a rear shield. If he HETs away, odds are that he won't have much battery to pad the rear shield you're firing on and you may still have enough speed to catch up to him to get a closer shot. Try not to let him get a perfect oblique, but close in the hex spine instead. If he fires on a perfect oblique you may need to use a HET to keep him in front of you a few impulses down the road and a HET on his part could feed you his off-side phasers through your down shield. If you've reached range 2 and nobody has fired yet, you're just going to have to swap alphas at that point.The downside is that if he hits really well, you won't be able to even up the score enough.
So there's a few ideas. None of them perfect, but Fed civil wars sometimes call for taking chances. In fact, flying the Fed at all is taking lots of chances.
dumb
I think sitting on 4 WW as a fed and hoping the other guy doesn't burn your 4 wws and then blow a big whole in you is the dumbest idea I have ever heard.
Don't take that personally.. note I said the idea was dumb, not you. :)
Options
If you can be at R8 (or range 7, really) at the end of the turn, and have a four WW (a good idea in fed v. fed anyway), I think that taking the shot is the right move.
First lets look at the R8 shot. We'll start, again, with 13 from phasers, then look at photons/damage: 13, 29, 45, 61, 77. All you are looking to do is kill 1 photon. Assume 30 point shield plus 5 batts, so subtract 35 from the above to get the internals.
Odds of killing 1 photon:
0: 0%
0: 0%
10: 44%
26: 77%
42: 91%
Now the odds of doing the damage:
13/0: 6%
29/0: 25%
45/10: 37%
61/26: 25%
77/42: 6%
So, odds of killing 1 photon with R8 shot: 6*0 + 25*0 + 44*37 + 25*77 + 6*91 = 41%
There are a couple options left for your opponent, well three I guess:
1. Go to 1 and take the shot.
2. Kill all the WW and take the shot
3. ride it out at R5 and wait for the opponent to raise FC and/or increase speed to 5+
option 1 results - our two scenarios: 4+6 and 3+6
Phasers R1 - 23, R0 - an extra 6 (which is why R1 is the right move) plus the photons: 23, 39, 55, 71, 87
ok, before we get to the odds, we need to determine internals. Fed that fired EA: 3 HK (no FC), 4 WW, 6 photons, 2 phasers (six in Cap) and 5 Tac = 20 = 18 point brick. Add to that the possible use of 3 batts (5 if 3 or 4 hit) and you get as internals: 0, 0, 4, 18 and 34
Now the odds of Taking the damage with 4(and 3) photons
29/0: 1%(4%)
39/0: 10%(22%)
55/4: 30%(44%)
71/18: 40%(30%)
87/34: 20%(0%)
Ok, now for a quick combination: adding in the 41% chance of killing your opponent's photon:
29/0: 2%
39/0: 15%
55/4: 36%
71/18: 36%
87/34: 12%
So, that is a pretty impressive exchange. You have a 69% chance to do significant internals to your opponent, your opponent in return has a 48% chance to return the favor.
Option 2. We'll state this one quickly. If he uses 8 phasers, total, to kill your WWs, that leaves him, at the best, with a 4 photon, 2 p-1 shot at you, at range of his choice. The best case is 64+the 2 phasers, for approximate internals of 20ish (something you had about a 31% chance of doing on your first shot). Obviously, if he lost a photon in that first shot (41% chance), his max damage is down to 48+ 2 phasers. Combine that with the guaranteed simultaneous return shot from your more numerous phasers, and you have a pretty one-sided exchange. This option, of course, can be complicated by his use of shuttles as well.
Option 3. This one is pretty clear. You get to shoot your big shot twice to his once. No matter how you stack that up, the guy shooting twice comes out way ahead.
Overall, in Fed v. Fed, I think the Impulse 30-32 shot at range 8 is very good for the prepared Fed taking that shot.
Range 8 and weasels
I agree with Paul 100%. To be fair, the non-weaseling Fed could use a couple of launched admins and/or a SS to take out one of the weasels. I sometimes arm a SS in Fed civil wars myself. Maybe even a tractor could death drag a WW. Granted, the ships need to be somewhat close for shuttles and tractors to be used to eliminate weasels. So the phaser disparity may not be all that great. Then again, the non-weaseling Fed may have lost some weapons in that initial exchange to begin with. As I stated before, raising FC to fire the second photon volley is the tricky part unless your opponent obliges you and roasts one of your weasels at the end of your reload turn.
Firing at range 8 at the end of the turn is also a pretty good idea as long as you hit with more than 1 photon. I had a NK Fed Civil war game against Scott Moellmer earlier this year where we both fired at range 8 and did nearly equal damage to the other. What won me that game was the fact that I pursued him on the reload turn while he tried to run away and I was able to get range 2 on his rears at the end of that turn. I wish I remembered what the internal damage was for each of our ships on that first pass. It would really help this discussion. Alas, I am a forgetful turd.
Death dragging is possible
but not really that likely. SS I don't see. It means you have to get in front of the opponent - doing that even once will mean he is covered on WW for the entire turn.
If the opponent perfectly guesses your move - and it is not that unreasonable, but sill a risk - then they could go 26/13. At 13, you could death drag and stay reasonably close. The first WW is going to take phasers - at least 2 p-1. The others - well at 13, you could death drag, two, but the timing is going to have to be perfect. Same with SS. It is possible - but very difficult. You would again have to get all the timing perfectly and your plot would have to be perfect as well.
The basic problem is that you have to get to R1 and stay there. Every impulse you are facing away from your opponent is an impulse they don't need a WW. On top of that, the first WW would be launched on immediately and would be at R2, even with a perfect plot, by the time you got to R1. So that one you are certainly killing with phasers - 2xP-1 as soon as you get in range (R3) - That is impulse 8. The same impulse you would need to go down to Sp13, so on impulse 12 another WW comes out (sp5). You drag it on 13. You drag the next one on 18, kill the last one with phasers on 24, and get to shoot on 29. During that time, even at best plot -26->10, 13->18, 6->26, 3->32, you reached R1 on impulse 10 and needed to keep your opponent in the FA over the course of 5 moves at TM3 or 2. You *might* be able to use an HET in there, but then you have to be careful not to allow the opponent to MTSC to 3 or 4 to slip underneath you.
So, sure, it is possible, but seams unlikely to net you more than 1 death drag, even with a perfect plot, after which you probably need to ED.
I do think Shuttles make it easier
If you could get close and stay there, you could dump all 4 of your shuttle (if they are not armed as anything) and kill the last two WW with the p-3s from those. You still have the complication of not allowing the parked Fed out of your FA - a task I think is trickier than it may seem.
or HET
I'm not saying that firing at 8 is a bad idea... I think it is a GOOD idea. I just am not so hot about the idea of hiding under 4 WWs afterwords.